Russian oil supplies to India will continue to flow unhindered and suppliers will come up with ways to sidestep secondary sanctions, a Russian official told Business Standard.
India's exports in April jumped nearly three-fold to USD 30.63 billion from USD 10.36 billion in the same month last year, according to government data released on Friday.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
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The Reserve Bank of India in July introduced 80:20 scheme under which 20 per cent of the total gold imports was to be exported back.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
RBI should monitor export credit offtake and how well banks implement its instruction.
The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
The growth in imports was led by product categories such as diagnostic items, ultra-sonogram machines, MRI and ECG apparatus, syringes with needles, suture needles, digital thermometers, malaria diagnostic kits, and hearing aids.
In July alone, 2.5 tonnes of gold coins were imported so far from South Korea under zero-duty facility
India will soon meet Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to seek a definitive rate of discount on crude oil similar to what Russia has provided so far, sources said. Multiple officials and industry executives said Iraq, which is India's biggest oil supplier, wants to discuss the level of discounts expected by Indian refiners. India's focus on snapping up ever-increasing volumes of Russian crude oil has led to a corresponding decline in imports from the Middle East. Flows from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have suffered as a result.
Even as the industrial cycle has ground to a halt during the 21-day lockdown, the industry has been hit hard by foreign orders from major clients in the US and Europe being cancelled. Also, a sudden lack of labour has crippled the sector because of a mass exodus of workers from industrial units to the hinterland.
According to the report, the demand for materials needed for infrastructure projects like metals, minerals, buildings and transport equipment is expected to increase as the country invests in building its civil infrastructure.
The gold market has remained under pressure.
With the government asking the companies to operate with only 50 per cent staff strength, and exports dipping to almost zero, the truck and bus drivers idling at the petrol pump say they hardly have any work now. At a petrol pump on the deserted Bavla-Changodar highway near Ahmedabad in Gujarat, several trucks and buses are neatly parked in a row.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
India has decided to authorise the country's biggest lender SBI to promote rupee trade with Russia and soon Moscow will name its bank to operationalise the mechanism, exporters' body FIEO said on Wednesday. The RBI in July issued a detailed circular asking banks to put in place additional arrangements for export and import transactions in Indian rupees in view of increasing interest of the global trading community in the domestic currency. Currently, a large part of bilateral trade between India and Russia is getting settled in rupee due to sanctions imposed by the US and Europe following Moscow's attack on Ukraine.
India on Sunday signed three agreements with the US for developing smart cities in Ajmer, Allahabad and Visakhapatnam, with the government saying that the agreements would make significant contribution to building such cities in the country.
The fall in exports of gems and jewellery exports is mainly because of shortage of raw-material for jewellery manufacturing.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
The primary problem is that India's garment factories are too small and they typically have 150 people and about 80 machines.
Corporate India is more dependent than before on exporters of IT services such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, and Wipro for earning foreign exchange. Such companies account for nearly 43 per cent of the forex revenues of listed firms, up from 22 per cent a decade ago. The listed IT services companies earned nearly Rs 4.2 trillion through exports in FY22, up 15 per cent from the Rs 3.65 trillion a year earlier. In comparison, the forex revenues or exports of the rest of the BSE500 companies were down 11.9 per cent to Rs 5.6 trillion last financial year.
To check rising current account deficit, the government has raised import duties and the Reserve Bank of India had imposed curbs on import of the yellow metal and also laid down various pre-conditions for inward shipments of the precious metal.
Going by the real effective exchange rate, the rupee is overvalued
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan expressed anguish at the banks' reluctance to pass on benefits of the earlier rate cuts.
The RBI on Wednesday eased gold import norms by allowing select trading houses, in addition to already permitted banks, to procure the precious metal to boost exports.
The new regulations leave registration capital requirements for wholly foreign-owned banks unchanged
Six decades and more later, we are now captives of our identities. Every poll is based on elaborate calculations of electability of candidates on the basis of their castes and other narrow definers. That, along with voter promiscuity, is what defines our political culture, which remains stubbornly resistant to any change, asserts Shreekant Sambrani.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
Also, the import tariff value -- the base price at which customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing -- in case of silver has been reduced to $644 per kg from $694 per kg earlier, a notification by the Central Board of Excise and Customs said.
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
Tightening Russian gas supplies to Europe has led to scramble for tankers before winter sets in.
On its part, the Reserve Bank of India tried to help exporters by easing some restrictions imposed on holders of Exchange Earners Foreign Currency accounts and by giving effect to the commerce minister's announcements regarding extension of the interest subvention scheme for one more year and for more items.
'The government is encouraging consumption through fiscal spending in a bid to push up economic growth in the face of a slowdown in corporate investment and exports.'
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
India's exports dipped after a gap of four months in March but finished 2017-18 with a healthy rise of 9.78 per cent to $302.84 billion.
Keen to capitalise on the growing geopolitical support from African nations after the recently concluded G20 Summit, India is working with the African Union to hold the fourth India-Africa Forum Summit later this year in Kenya's Nairobi, sources said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend the mega meet along with as many as 50 African leaders, they added. First held in New Delhi in 2008, the India-Africa Forum Summit marked India's initial diplomatic efforts to seek a comprehensive partnership with the African bloc of nations as a whole, at a time when China had begun its own outreach.
